Magna Financial Market Report – Wednesday 30th April 2025

30 April 2025  

 

MARKET REPORT

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• Tariffs take centre stage as Fed cuts loom

• Euro rises on stronger French CPI

RECAP

The U.S. dollar firmed on Tuesday, supported by end-of-month positioning and fresh indications that the Trump administration intends to soften the impact of auto tariffs. An executive order to that effect was signed the previous evening.
These developments helped the greenback advance, even as broader economic indicators reflected strain.

Consumer confidence slid to a five-month low, with concerns over tariffs weighing on the public’s economic outlook. At the same time, job openings dropped to their lowest level since September, highlighting diminished labour market demand, also linked to trade tensions.

President Donald Trump reignited his ongoing criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, asserting once more that he possesses superior knowledge of interest rate policy.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar strengthened after first-quarter inflation came in at 0.9%, surpassing expectations. Nevertheless, markets remain confident that a 25 basis point rate cut is likely at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next meeting in
May.

TODAY

DATA POINTS

OUR SUMMARY

Today’s trading session kicks off with a dense line-up of economic releases, but markets may be more selective in their reactions. The euro caught some early upside momentum following a hotter-than-expected CPI print out of France. However, broader
eurozone growth figures and German inflation data—though in focus—may be largely brushed aside given their backward-looking nature. If German CPI comes in soft, it could further support the case for 75 basis points of additional ECB rate cuts this year.

Across the Atlantic, the U.S. economy appears to have sharply decelerated, with forecasts pointing to a shift from 2.4% growth in Q4 2024 to a slight 0.2% contraction in Q1 2025. The slump is widely attributed to trade-related disruptions, and while much of it has already been priced in, the magnitude remains striking. Markets are already leaning toward 100 basis points in rate cuts for 2025, and only an unexpectedly strong core PCE inflation print later today could challenge that outlook.

Despite the data-heavy calendar, recent history suggests that fundamentals may once again take a backseat. Over the past month, markets have reacted more dramatically to tariff-related headlines than to economic indicators. In that vein,
remarks yesterday from Howard Lutnick—who mentioned an undisclosed
trade deal nearing completion—added to the noise but offered
little clarity.

HOW WE CAN HELP

Our team of currency experts are here to help you get more from your money when making international payments. We will work with you to understand your payment needs and offer specialised guidance on the best options available to you. Get in touch with Osman Hanif today on +44 (0) 203371 9200 or email osman@magnafinancial.com

Magna Financial

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