OUR SUMMARY
Macron recently shared with French newspaper Le Figaro that he and Keir Starmer are working on a plan to secure a one-month truce in Ukraine, which briefly boosted the EUR early in trading. This morning, EUR CPI will be in focus, with expectations that it could come in lower than anticipated, following disappointing regional prints from Spain and Germany. Later today, the US will release ISM manufacturing data.
This week also brings uncertainty over whether the US’s proposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China will proceed.
As we enter March, it’s a big week with February’s US job numbers and the ECB interest rate decision on the docket. February’s weaker data has dampened the US exceptionalism narrative, causing the USD to weaken over the month. However, a robust job market could reignite demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, the ECB is widely expected to cut rates by 0.25%, a move fully priced in by markets. The key focus for EUR will likely be Christine Lagarde’s accompanying statement, particularly if there are any changes to the ECB’s current easing stance.
